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This surely should not continue. It makes no rational sense for it to persist. And yet, it does.

A Record-Chasing Victory Against the Odds

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a historic record of 11 consecutive wins, a feat last achieved in 1897 and 1914. For much of the match, achieving it seemed highly unlikely, as the hosts controlled proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added several more. However, Chelsea have shown frailty when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable knack of snatching wins on the road from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his leg and the post after his initial shot was saved by Robert Sánchez. Subsequently, he secured the decisive goal with a deft header. These were just his fourth and fifth league goals of the season. Watkins might believe some fortune was overdue, and there's no question the equalizing goal involved a large slice of luck. At the moment, though, Lady Luck seems to be smiling on Villa.

The Numbers Behind an Implausible Run

The last nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a single goal. They have managed a clean sheet in just one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in a couple of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five road Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This formula seems unsustainable, yet pundits have been saying that for some time, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will finally align with their performances or if their performances can improve to justify the results.

This should not be possible, but everybody's been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Resilience

Fighting back is not merely a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no team has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; Eighteen of those were secured this season, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed nine goals. Two key points can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.

• First, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, a virtuous cycle: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they are convinced they can do it once more.
• Secondly, Emery has proven exceptionally skilled at influencing games through his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea won the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, around the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Suddenly, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs in behind caused problems. Amadou Onana and Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and adding the flank presence they had eschewed earlier.

The Blues registered ten attempts to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa had 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Once again, opposing manager Enzo Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is more proficient at implementing a tactical plan with preparation time than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a welcome habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Morgan Rogers has been decisive at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him working the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a recurring leitmotif. It was the winger who transformed the game after coming on at Leeds. Watkins changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Ezri Konsa and Viktor Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's seldom the whole side playing brilliantly, but sufficient players within it delivering to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its halfway stage, they must be considered as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than club world champions Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. The upcoming away game at Arsenal will be a significant test of that status. Villa beat Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning three in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to deny their championship pedigree.