Aston Villa Defy Logic Once More as Victorious Streak Continues at Chelsea
This surely should not continue. The logic defies sense that it persists. And yet, it does.
A Historic Triumph Defying Expectations
The Claret and Blue army arrived at the weekend's top-flight encounter at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in the distant past. For much of the match, achieving it seemed improbable, as the hosts dominated proceedings, secured the lead, and could have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa have cultivated a remarkable knack of snatching wins on the road from losing positions.
First, Ollie Watkins equalised, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post after his initial shot was saved by the goalkeeper. Later on, he secured the winner with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. Watkins might feel some fortune was due, and it's undeniable the first goal had a significant element of luck. At the moment, though, fortune is smiling on Villa.
The Statistics Of an Implausible Streak
Nine of these 11 straight wins have been by a solitary goal. They have kept a clean sheet in only one of those matches. Their underlying metrics have been better in just six of those fixtures, and in two of those, the margin was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come after conceding first. This pattern seems unsustainable, but observers have been saying that for weeks, and Villa keep on winning. The central question is whether their results will finally match their performances or if their level of play can improve to justify the results.
This seems unsustainable be sustainable, but everyone has been saying that for a while and Villa keep on winning.
A Defining Trait: Resilience
Coming from behind is not just a trait of the current campaign. Over the past three seasons, no side has won more points from losing positions than Villa's fifty-four; 18 of those have been secured this season, 50% more than the next best team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have scored 9 goals. Two important observations can be made about Villa under Unai Emery.
- First, they possess a deep-rooted confidence that means no deficit ever feels insurmountable. This is, to an extent, self-perpetuating: the more they achieve comebacks, the more they believe they can do it again.
- Second, Emery has proven very skilled at influencing games through his use of the bench.
The Emery Effect
While Chelsea won the expected goals 2.1-1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery executed a triple change. Watkins came on for Donyell Malen, who had struggled with limited service. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's movement in behind created issues. Onana and Jadon Sancho also entered, strengthening the midfield and providing the width they had lacked earlier.
Chelsea had ten attempts to Villa's zero before the changes; afterwards, Villa created 11 chances to Chelsea's 4. By the end, Villa were in control and could have won more comfortably. Once again, Chelsea boss Maresca seemed unable to respond as the game turned against him; the impression remains that he is more proficient at devising a game plan with preparation time than adapting in the moment.
Individual Brilliance
Villa have also developed a happy habit of individuals producing moments of sensational quality to alter games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The sight of him shifting the ball onto his right foot and whipping a finish home has become a recurring theme. It was the winger who changed the game after coming on at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The contributions of players such as Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were also vital. Right now, it's not always the whole side playing brilliantly, but enough individuals within it delivering to earn the victories.
What Comes Next?
Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind Arsenal, and as the season approaches its midway point, they have to be considered as part of the title race, arguably more so than club world champions Chelsea or defending champions Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a major test of that claim. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only had better the xG but registered an xG forty percent higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.
The Gunners have since put together their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being entirely convincing. The upcoming clash will be a challenge for both sides – and if Villa secure a 12th game in a row, it would become increasingly difficult to dismiss their championship pedigree.